The US often has a narcissistic view of the Arab world. Expecting that our aid to Egypt’s military will give clout to our pleas for peace, the news is filled with White House plans for Egypt’s future. In truth, Arabs often resent US interference in their affairs.
While US relations are better with Egypt than some Arab governments, the Egyptian government has not responded to US pushes toward democracy. The Egyptian dictatorship is fraught with corruption.
Israel might have the most at stake in any change in Egypt’s power. Egypt has historically had better relations with Israel than most of her other neighbors in the Mid East. Egypt was the first Arab country to recognize Israel as an independent nation.
American investors are making a cautious response to recent violent demonstrations in Egypt, but most investors are closely watching oil prices. According to Investment News, forty percent of US oil supplies are shipped through the Suez Canal, controlled by Egypt.
Investment advisory firms say the unrest in Egypt is more a political than economic concern, noting that they have not seen panic in their investors. Egypt experienced a 20% rise in food prices between 2000 and 2010.
Food and energy prices in Egypt have risen drastically, due in no small part to government policies and tremendous population growth. The population growth has far exceeded creation of jobs. Egypt depends on importing 40% of their food supplies.
Even if Egypt moves in the direction of democracy, that is no assurance that they will be more responsive to the wishes of the US. No matter what form the next Egyptian administration takes, the Islamic population of 94% wants to control their own future with interference from Western influences.